If the West-Iran talks fail…?
-Dr. Abdul Ruff
The oil rich Middle East today is in serious turmoil thanks to the Sept-11 hoax, perpetrated by anti-Islamic gangs in USA, the only superpower on earth with high precision remote technology to conduct surveillance operations and monitor literally everything.
Negotiators from Iran and UNSC-5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany) in Vienna seem to be on the brink of reaching an agreement to significantly limit Iran’s nuclear program and place it under strict international monitoring. They agreed to extend the deadline for outcomes beyond June and final date is yet to be fixed.
Tehran could break out of the interim nuclear agreement, the Joint Plan of Action, which has essentially frozen Iran’s nuclear program for nearly two years. With no promise of lasting and more significant sanctions relief, Iran may decide to resume its nuclear enrichment program, to weaponize its nuclear program. Iran could still remain in the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and come close to developing the capabilities to quickly break out if there is no international agreement placing further restrictions and inspections on its activities.
Anti-Iran specialists talks about risks associated with a deal as well, including the possibility that Iran will fail to implement the agreement, resume a nuclear program once the nuclear agreement expires, or covertly continue elements of its program beyond the surveillance of the international community.
They want to make it appear that Iran is at fault for the breakdown in nuclear talks, the current broad international support for sanctions against Iran could weaken.
Failure to reach or approve a deal would likely produce one or more of the following: an expanded Iranian nuclear program; an erosion of broad international sanctions without any benefit to regional and global security; heightened potential for military conflict; and the loss of opportunities to work on major areas of common concern to Iran and the United States.
No one should be under the illusion that even a strong nonproliferation agreement that prevents all possible pathways toward the Iranian bomb will magically transform this volatile region. But on balance, the Middle East would be better off with a good nuclear deal than without one.
US sanctions against Iran have proven effective because of the backing they have garnered among key oil-importing countries such as China, India, South Korea, and Japan. International sanctions have, by some estimates, cut Iran’s oil exports by more than half in recent years, costing Iran up to $40 billion in revenue annually.
There are not many constraints on Iran’s nuclear program and dissipating international pressure on Iran
Nuclear Israeli leaders are likely to return to open threats about military options against Iran’s nuclear facilities should Iran resume its enrichment program to levels that bring it closer to a weapons capability that crosses Israeli red lines.
Israel is eagerly awaiting a return to US military escalation with Iran is also more likely in a no-deal Middle East. Iranian hardliners’ arguments that the West was never really interested in a deal with Iran will appear vindicated, undermining the leverage and influence of more pragmatic Iranian factions who were associated with the failed negotiations. This could lead to an expansion of Iran’s already destabilizing regional activism, particularly in Iraq, Syria, and in its relationship with Hezbollah.
Pressures from USA, Russia and other nuclear states on neighboring states to consider nuclear programs of their own would also likely increase
It is difficult to know whether a deal will moderate Iran’s regional behavior or improve U.S.–Iranian relations and cooperation on issues of common concern, such as countering Sunni extremist forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.
What is certain is that the absence of a deal will foreclose possibilities for even limited cooperation and the possibility of moderating Iran’s behavior over time.
The policies of isolating and punishing Iran—which has spanned Democratic and Republican administrations—have not produced more moderate Iranian behavior at home, in the region, or across the globe. Logic dictates a new approach.
US President Barack Obama noted in a discussion of his administration’s revision of Cuba policy that current policies of pressure and isolation haven’t worked, so logic dictates a new approach.
Israel which deliberately fails its so-called peace talks with the Palestinians, besieged by Israel-Egypt terror blockades, is sure the UNSC –Iran talks would fail. After all Israel knows too well what exactly the USA would do in such talks. USA plays for Israel in the talks mediated only to bully the Palestinians and help Israel with expansionist objective.
US brand imperialism and Israeli variant fascism are essentially one and the same.